revisiter les predictions boursieres pour 2009+ nouvelles d'octobre 2009

In evaluating market predictions from the beginning of the year, there is usually an opportunity to point out which analysts got it right and which got it wrong, amid a broad range of predictions. For 2009, however, most analysts predicted a small recovery in the equity markets, a low-risk bet after the S&P 500's drop of almost 40% in 2008 and similar moves in global equity markets.

This prediction trend among institutional analysts turned out to be too cautious. Most expected only a small recovery in the S&P 500, which is currently up 18% on the year. A few cautiously recommended emerging markets, while others underweighted the sector. None forecast the huge rally in the BRIC nations–Brazil, Russia, India and China–which posted gains of 65-100%. The exceptions to the rule were independent managers like Marc Faber and Felix Zulauf: Faber scored with emerging market equities, while Zulauf’s choices, the Hong Kong and Singaporean markets, have both risen about 50% YTD.

Analysts' Predictions for 2009

Citi's 2009 Market Outlook (01/02/09):

· “Modest gains expected in 2009. Following a brutal 2008, an improved 2009 is expected for equity market investors. However, various economic challenges are in place with some longer-term issues still to be resolved. Thus, despite very attractive valuation, panicked sentiment and lowered earnings expectations, it is unlikely that the full year will provide substantial appreciation potential.”

Citi’s caution may have sent equity investors to the sidelines, causing them to miss out on gains. To be fair, Citi does go on to predict the 2009 trading environment will involve big rallies and pullbacks, but it calls for gains of only 10% and sets conservative year-end targets of 1,000 for the S&P 500 and 9,500 for the Dow. The remaining seven weeks of 2009, however, just might prove Citi right.

DB Private Wealth Management's 2009 Global Outlook:

· “S&P 500 2009 Year-End Target Range: 990–1040.”

· “U.S. over international developed countries.”

· “Europe (ex-UK) equity return projection for next 12 months: +3 to +8%.”

· “Japan has the lowest GDP growth forecasts for 2008 and the lowest equity return projections for the next 12 months (0% to +8%) of the international equity regions.”

· “Asia (ex-Japan) has the most attractive return projections (+5 to +15%) over the next 12 months and Latin America equity return projections for the next 12 months are +3% to +12%. However, in the near-term, heightened volatility to remain as the depth and duration of the global recession unfolds.”

· “Overall, we remain slightly underweight EM (emerging market) equities as we look for signs of stability in the financial markets before increasing exposure. Investors will likely remain risk averse until economic growth bottoms in the developed markets. However, for risk averse investors or portfolios significantly underweight, dollar cost averaging back into markets is recommended.”

· “The Asian region, particularly China, remains our favorite region within the BRIC’s due to strong secular growth, less deleveraging and the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Russia is our least favoreddue to a weak economic outlook (oil production declining), large external debt levels and the central bank’s unsuccessful intervention to control the decline in the ruble.”

DB called Asian equities well, despite underestimating the move higher. Their underweighting of emerging market equities, however, could have caused investors to miss out on a great deal of market performance, and their “least favored” BRIC market, Russia, has gained 100% YTD.

Danske Bank's Global Outlook (12/19/08):

· “Global: The world economy is currently in its worst recession for decades. We expect the weakness to continue over the coming quarters but for a modest recovery to begin in the middle of 2009. The U.S. should be the first to recover followed by Asia, whereas Euroland will be the laggard.”

· “Emerging Markets: The growth outlook for emerging markets worsened during 2008, and standing on the brink of 2009 most countries in the emerging markets face a couple of quarters with negative growth as global deleveraging continues to put a dampener on emerging markets. In CEE and CIS we are most downbeat on the growth outlook, as these regions are the ones where imbalances have grown the most and thus the need for increased savings and reduced spending are the highest–overall we expect zero at best in CEE/CIS. Latin American economies suffer from lower commodity prices and slumping U.S. growth, while Asia should get a boost from lower commodity prices and better external balances. However, in H1 2009, Asian growth will slow significantly as industrial production suffers from lower exports. During the last part of 2009, there should be a reasonable chance of a rebound. Good news for emerging markets is that inflation falls rapidly, which should open the door for more aggressive monetary easing, but also weaker currencies–mostly in CEE/CIS.”

· “We see upside potential for both Wall Street and the Nordic stocks of up to 30% during H1 2009, or the S&P 500 hitting 1200. In our risk case, we anticipate the S&P 500 at around 900.”

Another bank missteps by underweighting emerging markets, some of the best performing equity markets for 2009. As the U.S. dollar weakened against most currencies, Danske's push for U.S. equities would have led to poor returns for investors that are not dollar-based–perhaps most of the investors using Danske's research.

Faber, Marc Faber Ltd.'s GloomBoomDoom Newsletter, via Barron’s Roundtable (January 2009):

• “In a recovery driven by easy money, zero interest rates and fiscal deficits, emerging markets–the most cyclical part of the global economy–can rebound. There is 50% upside in the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index, the Templeton Russia and East European Fund, the Greater China Fund, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index and the Turkish Investment Fund. Everything is bad in Japan, but they're used to it for 20 years, so Japanese stocks might not go down more.”

Not only does Faber nail the right markets, he also cites the strong upside potential. The funds he recommends have had tremendous performance YTD:

 

Zulauf, Zulauf Asset Management, Barron’s Roundtable (January 2009):

• Zulauf recommends Asia equities: Stocks are cheap, offer good dividend yields and provide a way to have a foot in these markets. He likes iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) and iShares MSCI Singapore (EWS).

Journalists' Predictions

Journalists's market predictions were fairly off-course. The FT printed the following market forecasts by their columnists for the FTSE 100, which is currently trading at 5125:

· Kevin Goldstein-Jackson, FT Money Columnist: “Rolling a dice four times showed 5,433. But I’ll stick with 5,280–unless there are major wars, terrorist activities, earthquakes, increasing financial failures and frauds.” (Prediction: 5280)

· John Lee, FT Money Columnist: “Sadly, the economic outlook for 2009 is grim However, the market is unquestionably oversold–I equate the opportunity to now buy selectively with those who could buy city centre sites after the Blitz.” (Prediction: 5250)

· Nick Louth, FT Money Columnist: “Though we may get a low towards 3,500 sometime next year, I think we will see some sharp rallies and a year-end figure of 4,300.” (Prediction: 4300)

· Dominic Picarda, FT Money Contributor: “The FTSE will make new bear market lows in 2009, diving at least to 3280. If that level gives way, expect it to drop to 2660 and perhaps even 2300. But, assuming it drops only to 3280, it could make it to 4000 by the end of the year.” (Prediction: 4000)

· David Stevenson, FT Money Columnist: “We’ll be into the third leg of the bear market in H1 2009 and the FTSE will eventually hit 3000. It will then probably recover to around 4000, but slide to 3700 by December.” (Prediction: 3700)

Current Predictions

Institutions are positive on equities going into 2010, and now they all like emerging markets. Faber and Zulauf are becoming more cautious on equity markets, but both believe emerging markets will continue to outperform other regions.

Citi's Macro Commentary (10/01/09):

• “The S&P 500 could be poised to outperform gold after outpacing oil in the past year. Given the collapse of oil prices from its peak of US$147 last year and the recovery in the S&P 500, stocks have clawed their way back to trading at 0.5 standard deviations above the relative average of trading patterns between the two. In contrast, the index is now at a standard deviation below the average price performance relationship between stocks and gold, which is where the S&P 500 began outpacing the yellow metal in both 2003 and 2006.” 
• U.S. Equities: “Stocks do not look particularly overvalued, aside from our suspicion that share prices have run ahead of the fundamentals at this juncture. Thus, some correction is plausible given likely cuts to aggressive 2010 earnings expectations or a stalling out of the rally as the data catches up to the market.” 

• Emerging Markets: “Better demographics, lower debt burdens, pent up demand in consumer/infrastructure markets… the CEEMEA (Central Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa) region [is] relatively well positioned within the emerging markets to benefit from these long-term trends.” 
• Latin America: “Another modest pullback is likely in the near term–falling commodities/rising dollar, a further correction in Chinese equities and a Mexican ratings downgrade are all possible triggers…but get ready to buy it…we see regional equities in a ‘multi-year bull market.’ ” 

DB Private Wealth Management's 4Q09 Global Outlook (October 2009):

• U.S.: “The strong relationship between earnings and the S&P 500 and the rebound in earnings expected in 2010 justifies a higher S&P 500 level (from current levels) in 2010.”
• “Given our view that the dollar will weaken, investors should focus on sectors and companies that generate profits outside of the U.S. All of our favored sectors (info tech, energy, healthcare and industrials) generate at least 40% of their sales from overseas.”
• “U.S. GDP is forecast to turn positive in H2 2009 and lead the developed market economies in growth in 2010. The bulk of the U.S. fiscal stimulus will be spent in 2010, which should benefit economic activity.”
• “The weak U.S. dollar will likely benefit export driven companies and will provide higher comparables for both economic and earnings growth.”
• Emerging Markets: “While the emerging markets have remained insulated from strong domestic demand they are expected to gain further momentum as export demand improves.”
• “Brazil, India and China have positive earnings growth estimates over the next 12 months.”
• “Strong earnings growth has been supported by domestic demand and massive fiscal stimulus. Going forward EM (emerging markets) will likely gain additional momentum as the global economy transitions into the recovery and expansion stages.”
• “Optimism that the worst of the recession is behind us has led to increased risk appetite and driven emerging market fund flows higher. EM (emerging markets) may continue to benefit from increasing momentum as investors search for higher returns.”

Danske Bank's Nordic Outlook (October 2009):

• “We expect the next two to three quarters to be particularly strong. The main factors behind the rapid recovery in the coming quarters are: 1) A very strong inventory cycle; 2) Record stimulus starting to feed through to demand; and 3) Substantial easing of headwinds witnessed by a strong reversal in credit markets.” 
• “While we see some soft patch in mid-2010 we believe that the initial kick start is big enough for job creation to return and hence for consumers to revive. We are therefore cautiously optimistic that the recovery will prove sustainable.” 
• “The rebound is quite synchronous across U.S. and Europe. Hence Europe will not lag this time. Asia will cool a bit but continue to grow strongly and play a more important role in global rebalancing.”

Faber, Marc Faber Ltd., Barron’s Video Interview (10/29/09):

• Faber thinks the markets have more risk today as they are ahead of economic fundamentals, and he is more cautious about getting into equities now. He believes the investors are still underweight emerging markets and their buying on weakness will keep a floor in those markets. He is cautious on Thailand, however, due to the king’s illness and the repercussions of his death on Thailand.

Zulauf, Zulauf Asset Management, Barron’s Video Interview (10/29/09):

• Zulauf says he believes emerging markets and natural resources will continue to lead markets. He also thinks, however, that markets will probably peak in the spring of 2010 if economic numbers are strong because governments will halt fiscal stimulus, which Zulauf believes has played a huge role in the market gains.

So should you trust the investment bank analysts' prediction that the markets are heading higher or heed the caution of Faber and Zulauf? (Follow the predictions of financial journalists at your own risk.) The experts agree on only one thing: Emerging markets will continue to be the equity market darlings of 2009 and at least early 2010.

 

YTD Market Movements 

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conclusion traduit par google traduction :

avis pour 2010 :
2e partie de l'article :


DB Private Wealth Management 4Q09 Perspectives mondiales (Octobre 2009):

    * Etats-Unis: «La forte relation entre les salaires et l'indice S & P 500 et le bond des profits attendus en 2010 justifie un supérieur en S & P 500 de niveau (par rapport aux niveaux actuels) en 2010."
    * "Compte tenu de notre avis que le dollar va affaiblir, les investisseurs devraient se concentrer sur les secteurs et les entreprises qui génèrent des profits en dehors du Tout US de nos secteurs favorisés (info technique, de l'énergie, la santé et des industriels) génèrent au moins 40% de leurs ventes à l'étranger ».
    * "US Le PIB devrait s'avérer positive dans H2 2009 et entraîner des économies de marché développées de la croissance en 2010. L'essentiel de la relance budgétaire US seront dépensés en 2010, qui devrait bénéficier à l'activité économique. "
    * «La faiblesse du dollar profitera probablement incité les compagnies d'exportation et fournira les éléments de comparaison plus élevée pour à la fois économiques et la croissance des bénéfices."
    * Marchés Emergents: "Alors que les marchés émergents sont restés à l'abri de la forte demande intérieure, ils devraient s'intensifier la demande d'exportation s'améliorent."
    * "Le Brésil, l'Inde et la Chine sont positifs estimations de croissance des bénéfices au cours des 12 prochains mois."
    * "Forte croissance du bénéfice a été soutenu par la demande intérieure et de relance budgétaire massive. À l'avenir EM (marchés émergents) seront probablement prendre de l'élan supplémentaire, puisque l'économie mondiale dans les transitions de recouvrement et d'expansion. "
    L ' "optimisme que le pire de la crise est derrière nous a conduit à un risque accru l'appétit et conduit émergentes du marché des fonds des débits plus élevés. EM (marchés émergents) mai continuer à bénéficier de plus en plus dynamique que les investisseurs recherche de rendements plus élevés. "

Danske Bank nordiques Outlook (Octobre 2009):

    * "Nous attendons des deux à trois prochains trimestres d'être particulièrement forte. Les principaux facteurs derrière le redressement rapide dans les trimestres à venir sont: 1) Un cycle très forte inventaire; 2) Record de relance commence à se répercuter sur la demande, et 3) d'un allègement substantiel des vents contraires en présence d'une inversion de la vigueur des marchés de crédit. "
    * "Même si nous voyons quelque soft patch à la mi-2010, nous pensons que le bon coup d'accélérateur initial est assez grand pour la création d'emplois au retour et, partant, pour les consommateurs de faire revivre. Nous sommes donc prudemment optimiste que la reprise se révélera durable. "
    * "Le rebond est tout à fait synchrone sur des Etats-Unis et en Europe. C'est pourquoi l'Europe ne veulent pas rester pour le moment. Asie vont se refroidir un peu, mais continuer à croître fortement et à jouer un rôle plus important dans le rééquilibrage mondial. "

mb_predictions_table_3.jpg

Faber, Marc Faber, Barron's Video Interview (10/29/09):

    * Faber pense que les marchés ont plus de risques aujourd'hui comme ils sont en avance sur les fondamentaux économiques, et il est plus prudent d'entrer dans des actions maintenant. Il croit que les investisseurs sont encore sous-pondération des marchés émergents et leurs achats sur la faiblesse gardera un plancher sur ces marchés. Il est prudent sur la Thaïlande, cependant, en raison de la maladie du roi et les répercussions de sa mort sur la Thaïlande.

Zulauf, Zulauf Asset Management, Barron's Interview vidéo (10/29/09):

    * Zulauf dit qu'il croit que les marchés émergents et des ressources naturelles continuera de diriger les marchés. Il pense aussi, cependant, que les marchés seront probablement son maximum au printemps 2010 si les chiffres économiques sont solides parce que les gouvernements arrêteront de relance budgétaire, qui estime Zulauf a joué un grand rôle dans les gains du marché.

Donc, si vous la confiance de prévision des analystes bancaires d'investissement »que les marchés se dirigent plus ou tenir compte de la prudence de Faber et Zulauf? (Suivez les prédictions des journalistes financiers à vos propres risques.) Les experts s'accordent sur une seule chose: les marchés émergents continueront d'être les enfants chéris des marchés boursiers de 2009 et au moins au début de 2010.